NASA Tracks ‘City-Killer’ Asteroid with 2032 Impact Risk

A newly detected asteroid, roughly the size of a football field, has caught the attention of scientists due to its potential risk of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. While the odds remain low—currently at 1.6%—experts are closely monitoring its trajectory.

How Was It Discovered?

Dubbed 2024 YR4, the asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. By New Year’s Eve, it had landed on NASA’s radar as an object of interest.

“This one looked like it had the potential to stick around,” said Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at NASA.

According to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), 2024 YR4 follows a four-year elliptical orbit, passing through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and Jupiter.

For now, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, with its next close pass expected in 2028.

What Would Happen If It Hits Earth?

While nowhere near the size of the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs, 2024 YR4 still falls into the "city-killer" category.

“If you put it over Paris, London, or New York, it could wipe out the entire city and surrounding areas,” said Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society.

Experts compare it to the 1908 Tunguska Event, when an asteroid exploded over Siberia, flattening 80 million trees across 2,000 square kilometers.

If 2024 YR4 were to airburst over an ocean, it could trigger a tsunami. If it strikes land, the explosion could be equivalent to 500 Hiroshima bombs.

Can We Stop It?

The good news? There’s plenty of time to act.

NASA has already tested asteroid deflection with its 2022 DART mission, which successfully altered an asteroid’s path by crashing a spacecraft into it.

“I don’t see why it wouldn’t work again,” said Andrew Rivkin, a planetary astronomer at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

Other proposed solutions include:

Lasers: Vaporizing part of the asteroid to push it off course.

Gravity Tractors: Using a spacecraft’s gravitational pull to shift its trajectory.

Should We Be Worried?

Not yet. Experts predict that as more observations are made, the 1.6% impact probability will likely drop to zero—just like what happened with asteroid Apophis in 2004.

“Finding these things early gives us options,” said Fast. “We can plan, prepare, and—if needed—take action.”

For now, scientists are keeping a close watch, ensuring that if 2024 YR4 does pose a threat, we’ll be ready.

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